09/24/2026
Been doing this for 76 years, we got this. Love it, New England Weather Guy. Thank you!
☕🌤️ THURSDAY MORNING & NOR’EASTER UPDATE | 9/24
We're skipping the Morning Coffee post today because I've already been up for quite a while going through overnight model runs and looking at the latest data on our weekend storm, so let's get right into it.
☀️ FIRST, TODAY'S WEATHER
Today is actually going to be a pretty decent day across most of New England.
Northern New England: Mostly sunny, cool and dry with highs generally in the 60s.
Central New England: Plenty of sunshine with some clouds developing later. Highs generally in the low to mid 60s.
Southern New England: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, cool and increasingly breezy, especially closer to the coast. Highs mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
The northeast wind will be noticeable again today, especially along the coast. That wind is going to become increasingly important as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of our coastal storm.
Now...
🌧️💨 LET'S TALK ABOUT THE NOR'EASTER.
We are now close enough that the overall picture is becoming much clearer.
What is NOT completely settled yet is exactly where the storm stalls and loops.
The GFS family remains farther east, closer to Cape Cod, while some of the European guidance has wanted to tuck the storm much farther west toward the New York/New Jersey coast.
That difference matters.
A storm that stalls closer to Cape Cod brings stronger wind and heavier rain farther into New England.
A storm that gets hung up farther southwest still gives us a long stretch of northeast wind, rough surf and rain, but shifts some of the highest impacts.
Either way, this is looking like a LONG DURATION EVENT.
⏰ TIMING
TODAY:
Dry. Cool. Breezy. No storm yet.
FRIDAY:
Conditions begin deteriorating later in the afternoon/evening.
Rain should first approach southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and then gradually spread north and west.
For much of northern New England, Friday could actually stay dry for a good portion of the day.
Winds will begin increasing noticeably along the coastline.
FRIDAY NIGHT:
This is when the storm really starts settling into New England.
Rain becomes much more widespread from southern New England northward into New Hampshire and Maine.
Northeast/north winds continue strengthening.
SATURDAY:
This currently looks like one of the primary impact periods.
Periods of rain, strong winds, rough surf and coastal flooding concerns.
SUNDAY:
Don't expect to wake up Sunday and find this thing gone.
The storm may actually loop or stall offshore, keeping rain and gusty winds around through much of Sunday.
Northern New England may actually see some of its stronger wind potential during this period depending on where the storm stalls.
MONDAY:
Even Monday could remain damp and breezy before the system finally begins pulling away.
🌧️ RAINFALL
This is still one of the trickiest pieces of the forecast.
We're NOT looking at three straight days of torrential rain.
Instead, expect periods of light to moderate rain with bands of heavier rain rotating through the storm.
That banding is important.
One town could spend several hours underneath a heavier rain band while another town 30 miles away gets much lighter rain.
That means rainfall totals could vary considerably over relatively short distances.
Right now:
🌧️ Eastern Massachusetts / southeastern New England:
Potential for 2–4 inches over the entire multi-day event, although exactly where that axis develops remains uncertain.
🌧️ Southern NH / Seacoast / southwestern Maine:
A widespread 1–2 inches looks increasingly possible, with locally higher totals depending on rain banding.
There remains some potential for 3–4+ inches locally if persistent bands set up in the same locations, but that is NOT currently the most likely outcome.
🌧️ Farther west:
Totals generally decrease as you move into western New England.
And again, these totals are accumulated over several days, not falling all at once.
💨 WIND
This may ultimately be one of the bigger stories.
Cape Cod & Islands:
Peak gusts potentially 50–60 mph.
Eastern Massachusetts / immediate coastline:
Peak gusts generally 40–50+ mph.
Southern New Hampshire / Maine coast:
Periods of 35–45 mph gusts, especially toward the Seacoast and coastal Maine.
Interior New England:
Generally 25–35 mph, although exposed terrain could certainly go higher.
Remember something very important here:
🌳 THE TREES STILL HAVE THEIR LEAVES.
A 40–45 mph wind gust in late September can cause more problems than the same wind in December.
The leaves act like little sails.
Large limbs may come down and scattered power outages are absolutely possible, particularly across eastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, the Islands and coastal areas.
🌊 COASTAL IMPACTS
This continues to concern me.
We're talking about days of northeast wind pushing Atlantic water toward the New England coastline.
Not one tide cycle... Several!
That persistent push, combined with increasing astronomical tides and large waves, means:
• Coastal flooding
• Beach erosion
• Dangerous surf
• Significant splashover
• Possible road closures near vulnerable coastal locations
The greatest concern currently appears to be south of Boston through Plymouth County, Cape Cod and the Islands, especially around the Friday and Saturday high-tide cycles.
Farther north along the New Hampshire and Maine coastline, high surf and splashover will also become increasingly likely.
⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE
We have moved beyond the question of:
“Will there be a storm?”
There will be a significant coastal storm nearby.
Now we're narrowing down:
➡️ Exactly where does it stall?
➡️ Where do the heaviest rain bands develop?
➡️ How far inland do the strongest winds get?
➡️ Which coastal locations take the biggest beating?
And we're still about a day away from when the higher-resolution models really start becoming useful for figuring out some of those smaller-scale details.
So yes, there are still changes coming.
But we're getting there.
I'll continue working through the morning data and we'll keep tightening this forecast as the new guidance comes in.
For updated weather information between Facebook posts, head over to neweatherguy.app. NEWG Premium gives you the expanded forecast and storm information whenever you want it instead of having to wait for my next update.
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