08/08/2024
Anniversary One: a long post
As a resident of Maui and former Lahaina restaurant owner, I know I share cherished memories of Old Town with tens of millions of revelers from every corner of the world. People have flocked to our charming and scenic seaside village for generations, and they’re curious about how things are going, so I wanted to share a status update on Lahaina today, as today we remember that one year ago the old Lahaina we knew burned to the ground. Permit me a bit of a memory dump so its all in one place:
It was the most destructive fire in recent US history: homes, livelihoods, businesses, and the dreams of thousands were incinerated. 102 human Ohana and untold thousands of animals were lost as they fled the walls of flames.
While the local government has declined to release the origin and cause report, written by the federal Bureau of Alcohol, To***co, Fi****ms and Explosives, “due to formatting issues”, it’s now generally clear that the loss of Lahaina was caused by a combination of long-running lackadaisical local governance, lack of redundancy of critical infrastructure, and underinvestment in appropriate maintenance of existing old and low-quality infrastructure.
Cell phones and power had been out for close to a day by the time the fire swept through. Police blockaded the streets because they didn’t know which of the many miles of fallen power lines were hot or not, since communications were down.
Power lines were down across the island because there was a tropical storm hundreds of miles away that made it quite windy, similar to 2018 when Lahaina had previously almost burned down. A small fire in the morning, caused by one of the nearly uncountable wind-broken termite-ridden power poles, was ably put out by the fire department who then went to lunch, per their published account, leaving the scene of the fire unwatched. A few minutes after they left, it is thought that the original fire re-lit and proceeded to demolish the city. We await the aforementioned ATF repost to know for sure.
As in 2018, fire hydrants which did not work during prior fires still didn’t work, perhaps because no one had thought to repair them. Not all fire trucks had hoses or other basic equipment, further [[complicating getting water to the fires. Some fire personnel resorted to using sheets of cardboard to try to physically beat the fire back.
As in 2018, there were no emergency sirens because the responsible local Emergency Manager didn’t want to confuse people. That same government official also opted not to release a customary “After Action” report after the 2018 fire, ideally summing up the areas in need of improvement, such that the same issues that plagued the 2018 fire fight would not be repeated. As a result, all the same gaps brought up in prior post-fire testimony broadcast and recorded at the time, reoccurred in 2023.
While Lahaina was burning, the island mayor was on local TV saying all was under control and the roads were open. He has said he also went to a doctor’s appointment and has had a few different stories about what time he was where during the fire. He learned that Lahaina had burned sometime on the 9th and has stated that he was unsure who was in charge during the fire. The aforementioned Emergency Manager, who was off-island at an Emergency Response coordination meeting on Oahu while Lahaina burned, resigned effective immediately without answering any questions.
Curiously, to this day, the local island government is requiring all questions about the fire to be submitted by filing a Uniform Information Practices Act request, which allows them time and careful editing before fulfilling, which can take a month or more, if fulfilled at all. The state Attorney General has resorted to subpoenas to get the information she needs related to ongoing investigations. There is a gag order on all local employees in speaking about work. The county is doing this because it claims it is understaffed. But as one of the state representatives said, “it doesn’t pass the sniff test.”
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the fire, which was estimated to cause $5.6B in loses, the wildly popular state governor announced a $4B global settlement of all 10,000 claims to be paid out over 4 years starting as soon as mid-2025. The parties contributing to the funds include the power and communications companies, various large landholders, and the state and local governments. The $4b number was selected by mediators to not be too onerous on those paying parties who, as part of the settlement, will not be accused of any fault or wrongdoing. Taxes will presumably need to be raised to fund the governmental contributions.
In a related announcement, it was shared that Lahaina will cost over $12B to rebuild. Not a surprise when a single 1200 sq ft home on Maui is currently estimated to cost $1.5M to build, not including land. There are currently two parcels of land for sale in Lahaina, one 4,000 sq ft for $560K and one nearby 10,000 sq ft for $650K, both at the foot of a weedy field that burned near the bypass.
The unexplained gap between losses, expected expenses, and payments leaves many questions as to how the people who lost so much will be “made whole” as is proclaimed in these announcements. If divided evenly, each claimant will receive $400,000 minus fees. Those fees include the lawyers, who will be receiving 30% of the total monies, and the insurance industry, which is seeking to recoup the $3.2B they expect to pay out, leaving more questions still about what “made whole” means. $4B-30%-$3.2B seems like a negative number to me.
Today, the fire zone is mostly an empty wasteland of patches of gravel and weeds. The same types of weeds that spread the flames sparked by the failed termite-riddled infrastructure continue to grow unchecked across the vast hillsides owned by those large landholders contributing to the proposed “no fault” settlement. It’s not clear anything has been learned.
Inexpensive infrastructure is slowly getting put back up in the same way that lead to the initial fire: electricity is still running along wooden poles that will soon again be compromised by termites and easily knocked over in a high wind. The sort of wind that comes annually to a tropical island with a multi-month hurricane season.
The communications infrastructure still shares a single wire running along those same fragile poles for internet, cell phone, and emergency sirens such that when a drunk driver hits a pole, vast sections of the west side go down. The local internet has been out four times this week, once as I’m writing this, and chunks of the west side have lost power so many times due to wind it’s not worth counting. Banks, gas stations, the health clinics, and many homes now use satellite internet, since the communications infrastructure is so unreliable. Everyone who can has solar+battery on the side of their house as well.
Sub-standard to bare-minimum also describes the local approach to rebuilding needed homes and supporting infrastructure for the people of Lahaina. While initially not permitted due of a lack of allowable water at the base of the mountain range that is the second rainiest place on earth, and where vast lush golf course lawns are irrigated daily with drinking water, a lonely few pre-fab tiny homes started showing up in late June of this year, nearly a year after the fire, mostly provided by private owners on private land. As many Hawaiian families in need are larger than two people, and many have cherished pets, these offerings are curious choices purporting to meet the needs of survivors, but will one day be valuable rentals for the landholders.
As of today, there is one symbolic house under construction on its original lot in Lahaina.
To ease the housing crunch, instead of building, the island mayor has proposed banning a controversial portfolio of 7000 mostly 1-br and studio units from being rented out short term to visitors. Most of these units are in Kihei, far from the fire, and are ocean fronting or close to it. Their monthly association dues are well north of $1000 and they are currently valued around $1m each. In their current form, they provide an estimated half of the property tax revenues on the island, because of the extremely high taxes on short term rentals, which allows permanent residents to enjoy lower taxes on their homes.
Making these units into long term rentals is estimated to increase housing stock on the island by 13%, but as these are mostly small units with very high monthly dues, it is not clear who will be able to afford to rent on a normal local income, about $36,299. Even if 2 employed people are sharing a 250 sq ft studio, their combined $72,000 income will struggle with the expense. Also: no pets and only one parking spot. Perhaps the mayor is counting on undisclosed substitution effects over time.
Here on the west side, businesses are closing early because they can’t get staff while the unemployment rate on the island is stubbornly high. This conundrum is explained by the location of the housing being provided to the fire survivors, which is overwhelmingly located an hour away from the west side for cost reasons. Many workers don’t have cars and bus services are essentially nonexistent. As a result, many folks are depending on various food pantries and local complementary food marketplaces while waiting for that settlement due to start trickling out in mid-2025. It remains a challenging time for many.
Tourism to the island, and the state overall, is significantly down from the ongoing unclear messaging about visiting. There is reasonable concern from many corners about those who have jobs remaining employed as small businesses struggle to stay open. My restaurant, Cafe Cafe Maui will not be able to rise from the ashes until tourism numbers and an appropriate venue align. I know other restauranteurs who feel similarly.
While there are challenges, for those of us who get to continue to call these beautiful islands home, fewer visitors also means less traffic congestion, cleaner beaches, and a larger fraction of our energy can come from solar and wind which reduces pollution: the natural resources here are taxed less. More nature peeks out. The coral grows faster with less sunscreen in the water. Schools of fish and roving sea turtles seem larger and brighter and closer.
While there are certainly frustrations around the rate of progress, it is progress. Our community pulled together to contribute back in as many forms as there are needs: stocking food pantries with staples, providing fresh fish, helping provide hot meals, picking up trash, sharing housewares, volunteering on committees, etc… The gravel patches across the fire zone represent cleaned parcels where families can rebuild. The promise of a global settlement will indeed help many, even if short of making them whole. Sewer and municipal water infrastructure will be fresh and new. It’s a long journey not a sprint.
While there will continue to be challenges, it’s important to recognize that this slower pace on the west side continues to be wonderful living. The cool breeze, the beautiful ocean sparkling in the sunlight, it’s hard not to be seduced by the quiet quality of life that just _being here_ offers. And that’s why the people of Lahaina are fighting to stay and rebuild lives here. Ongoing support is critical.
And so, to mark and encapsulate this last challenging, tumultuous, frustrating, and frightening year, I’d like to share a favorite quote from philosopher Shunryu Suzuki, which tidily sums up life here right now: “Everything is perfect, with much room for improvement.”
You should come visit and see for yourself!
