30/03/2026
I am beginning to see the potential for a powerful cyclone next week, near Fiji.
Whilst this is absolutely no concern to the South Pacific nor Australia for that matter, the long range numerical models are consistent in showing a tropical low developing towards the end of next week, potentially becoming a cyclone the following weekend in the Solomon Sea or near Vanuatu and Fiji. The Deepmind models have recently jumped on board as well, meaning a system of some sort is now likely.
It is very important to note that, the GFS has a tendency to produce ridiculously powerful solutions when in the long range thanks to a flaw in the modeling simulations, and whilst it absolutely nailed Cyclone Narelle precedence is never an indication of future weather events. Most major forecast models keep the peak intensity around 990-970mb (tropical low - cat 2) with the Deepmind models a bit more intense around the 950mb (cat 3) mark, and only the GFS is going nuts with consistent sub 900mb (extremely powerful cat 5) in its runs.
It is certainly worth noting that powerful cyclones are regular occurrences at this time of year in the South Pacific Ocean, especially around Vanuatu and Fiji where the tropopause (the height to which storms can grow to) is extremely high, sea temperatures are at their warmest and generally deep layer wind shear remains low, and time and time again we have seen some extraordinary systems around here in April. That being said, this is just a 'if something forms, watch it closely' type point.
Bottom line: watch this space late next week. Fiji and Vanuatu are under no direct threat, and there is even less of a threat to Australia thanks to a strengthening jet likely to keep any new tropical activity in the far north from this point onwards. Don't be scared, be informed. Cheers, Josh.
